The diminished violence in Iraq did correspond in time with the increased troop strength of American forces. And so the US media did portray the surge as a success.
But was it? Because the decrease in violence also corresponded with something else - Sadr taking the most powerful force in Iraq, the Mahdi army - out of the civil war. Even at the time, I was surprised by the faulty analysis on CNN. If violence suddenly decreased, and not gradually, Sadr's announcement would make the better candidate for a reason than a slow draw-up of American forces.
And indeed that turns out now to have been true.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3635838.ece
So what has this out of play army kept itself busy with? Inserting thousands of Manchurian cops into Basra's military and political infrastructure.
The surge has been a mirage and now Basra is lost.
3 comments:
The US should pull out immediately and let them fight it out. This is what you want? Slow or fast, that is the question. Sitting on a high horse.
High horses are irrelevant. A people who do not want to be occupied by a foreign power can be analogized to a patient with a severe psychiatric disorder.
Would it be best for them to patiently wait out Western benevolence?
Yes.
Will they?
No.
It's done. The war has already ended, and it has ended with intra-Shiite conflict and the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from Shia neihbourhoods. It is not a question of will it happen - it has happened, and is happening. Two million Iraqis are already refugees in Syria and Jordan.
This conflict's future has already been set sail for. "Slow or fast," You ask?
Indeed. You already have your answer exactly.
Now I will be clear about my own opinion: the US should pull out immediately and let the blood bath that should be expected follow. But, I am so very disturbed with the suffering that will result even if it might be "a patient with severe psychotic disorder", though I believe the fight between factions is willful revenge by Shia and delusional defiance by the Sunni. My reasoning for choosing an immediate pullout is that the US is also sufferring for no righteous ultimate end and along the slow path the US while trying to avoid casualties amoung its own troops will inevitably inflict additional injury and death to Iraqis. I believe the pullout will cause less sufferring than a withdrawal over several years, but the US will be blamed more by the rest of the world; there is no pretty way out for the USA and the USA will just have to bear the bad-mouthing from the rest of the world who won't add anything positive to the situation in Iraq. I might be wrong.
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